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Explanation:

This is directly stated in the passage. “Prediction in history, as in other historical sciences, is most feasible on large spatial scale and over long times, when the unique future of millions of small scale brief events become averaged out.” The answer option is merely the same thing expressed in different (even easier) words.
Option 1 is eliminated because of “the complexity arising from enormous numbers of variables, the resulting uniqueness of each system, the consequent impossibility of formulating universal laws, and the difficulties of predicting emergent properties and future behaviour”- in other words the explanations are broad because prediction is not possible and not the other way round.
In option 3 ‘not interested’ is first data inadequate (passage does not say not interested) and by implication incorrect, because history is interested “in a multitude of minor factors,” – in order that the average may be worked out over long periods of time.
Option 4 is factually correct but does not answer the question- why prediction is difficult.
Option 5 is also factually correct but does not explain why prediction is difficult- it merely explains the constraints that history faces and how then it operates.
Hence, the correct answer is option 2.

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